Election latest: Reform overtakes Tories for first time in new poll - as minister hits out at 'ludicrous' Nigel Farage claim (2024)

The Conservative Party has been consistently attacking Labour over their economic plans, claiming that taxes will rise under a Starmer government.

But analysis shows that the tax burden will rise under the Conservative Party's plans as well.

Treasury minister Bim Afolami defended their plans, saying they are "costed, detailed and show that we are cutting taxes for working people and for families".

We put to him that the overall tax burden will continue to rise under their plans, albeit a little less quickly, but he said on "working people", taxes are "being cut".

He's pushed for an acknowledgement that the overall tax burden is rising under the Conservatives, and it will be the highest since 1949, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

But Mr Afolami replies: "No."

And he attacked Labour, saying the burden will reach "the highest ever" under a Starmer government.

Sky News; deputy political editor Sam Coates and Politico's Jack Blanchard are in your podcast feeds with their guide to the election day ahead.

This is day 23 of the campaign. Jack and Sam discuss the latest polling which shows Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for the first time, the aftermath of Labour's manifesto launch, and what the Lib Dems are up to in the so-called Tory Blue Wall.

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Email Jack and Sam: jackandsam@sky.uk

As we've been reporting, Reform UK has overtaken the Conservative Party for the first time in a new YouGov poll for The Times (more here).

We asked Tory Treasury minister Bim Afolami how worried he is about Nigel Farage's party, and he replied: "I'm not worried about it."

He said it's "one poll andthere are hundreds of others that don't show them at anywhere like that".

"But even in that one poll, it shows the danger that if you do not vote Conservative, if you're a Conservative-minded person, a vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer."

Mr Afolami said it is "ludicrous" for Mr Farage to have stated last night that a vote for the Tories is now a vote for Labour.

He defended his party's offer of tax cuts and a strong economy as a "very clear and compelling programme" - and rejected any notion that they would make a deal with Reform to stave off the threat from them.

"It's an election - we're not doing deals with anybody."

Beth Rigby has revealed how she decided on a "narrative" before quizzing the Labour and Tory leaders at Sky News's special event - and how a morning run almost scuppered everything.

Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak took turns for a 45-minute grilling at Sky News' Battle For Number 10 in Grimsby, with questions coming from a representative audience.

First to interrogate both leaders was political editor Rigby, who has lifted the lid on what it's like to prepare, execute (and almost miss) the big event.

"Kay Burley told me when I first came into telly 'fail to prepare, prepare to fail'," she told former Labour MP Margaret Hodge on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast.

"So, I took these two mottos into this very intense interview prep… you get loads of information and you start to try and work out what's the narrative that you want to tell."

The secret, she said, is to look at everything and then "distil it" until you have a clear "narrative arc".

"With Starmer, the thing really was - how can you trust this guy? That was the premise," she said.

"But for Sunak, it was like, you say you've got a clear plan, you say you're going to deliver… so, what's the Conservative record? But more importantly, what's your record?

"Because you've actually been prime minister. You made five pledges, and then there was a broader question about what were the betrayals to the British people."

But disaster almost struck before the event had even started.

"The night before, I woke up at, like, five in the morning, fully awake," she said, adding she could "feel the adrenaline".

So, she decided to go for a run.

"I just saw I'm coming to the end of the road. And I went to turn round, and, as I turned, I nearly ran into a moving car. So, I nearly got run over," she explained.

Not the kind of car crash anyone would have expected that day.

Listen to the full podcast here:

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Email the team electoraldysfunction@sky.uk, post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444.

Nigel Farage couldn't have hoped for better news as he strode on to the stage to debate on TV against Penny Mordaunt, Angela Rayner and rivals from the smaller opposition parties.

The dramatic news his Reform UK party has overtaken the Conservatives in the latest YouGov poll, on 19% to the Tories' 18%, meant he had his trademark letter box grin on his face for virtually the whole debate.

He began by declaring in his opening remarks: "We are now the opposition to Labour."

And he ended by boasting: "I have the courage to take on the mob. Please join the revolt."

Throughout the debate, Mr Farage had a jaunty swagger about him.

He laughed and scoffed at the anti-Brexit SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, who was standing next to him, and appeared to relish being in a minority of one against the other smaller parties on Brexit and immigration.

The other story of this debate was round two of the bruising battle between Penny Mordaunt and Angela Rayner over Labour's tax plans, while Ms Mordaunt conspicuously left Mr Farage alone and even engaged in some political flirting with him.

Read Jon's full analysis here:

Nigel Farage has declared Reform UK "the opposition to Labour" after his party overtook the Tories for the first time in a new poll.

In a fresh blow to embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a survey by YouGov for The Times put Reform UK at 19%, compared with the Conservatives at 18%.

The results came out moments before an ITV debate between senior figures in the seven main parties.

Mr Farage wasted no time in gloating about the poll, saying in his opening statement: "Just before we came on air we overtook the Conservatives in the national opinion polls.

"We are now the opposition to Labour."

In a flip of Conservative campaign rhetoric, he also claimed voting for the Tories over Reform would enable a Labour government.

Read more from our political reporter Faye Brownhere:

Good morning!

It's day 23 of the general election campaign, and this time in three weeks, we could be waking up to a very clear picture of who will be running the country for the next five years.

But there's a still a long way to go until polling day. After manifesto launches this week, today is slightly less intense.

Plenty going on, however - here's what's making the headlines:

• Nigel Faragehas declared Reform UK"the opposition to Labour" after a poll showed the right-wing populist party has overtaken the Conservative Party;
• Speaking in a multi-party ITV debate last night, Mr Farage attacked senior Tory Penny Mordaunt on her party's record, and as a result of this new poll, declared a "vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour";
• The Sky News Poll Tracker, which takesthe most recent poll from each pollster active in the last 28 days to average out where each party sits, shows support for the Tories continuing to fall;
• But it also shows that Labour's support has slipped a couple of points over the last 10 days or so;
• Speaking of the official opposition - the party is continuing to hammer the message of economic stability, with shadow chancellor Rachel Reevesexpected to be out and about today;
• Shadow health secretary Wes Streetingis promoting Labour's plan to tackle ill mental health and get people back into the labour market, and he will visit a men's mental health charity today;
• The Conservative campaign is taking a back seat again today to the G7 summit in Italy, which Rishi Sunak is attending;
• We are expecting to hear from his loyal deputies, however, as the Tories continue to attack Labour's economic plans, particularly in the wake of their manifesto launch yesterday;
• Lib Demdeputy leader Daisy Cooper will be out on the campaign trail promoting her party's National Food Strategy, committing an extra £1bn to the farming budget as it continues to try to appeal to rural and traditional Tory voters;
• We are also expecting to see the SNPdeputy leader Keith Brownon the campaign trail, promoting its campaign to ensure all Scotland national team games can air free on terrestrial TV.

We'll be discussing all of that and more with:

• Bim Afolami, Treasury minister, at 7.15am;
• Delyth Jewell, deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, at 7.30am;
• Wes Streeting, shadow health secretary, at 8.10am.

Follow along for live coverage of the general election campaign throughout the day.

Thanks for joining us on another manifesto packed day!

Unveiling his party's manifesto, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he was offering a "credible" long-term plan to "rebuild our country" if Labour win the election on 4 July.

In an interviewwith Sky's political editorBeth Rigby, he said he "rejects the argument" tax rises are required to rebuild public services - as he insisted there will be "no return to austerity" under a Labour government.

We also saw Plaid Cymru launch its manifesto today, which had "fair funding" in Wales at its core.

To get an overview of how the party manifestos are shaping up so far, head over to our manifesto checker here:

And then there was a landmark poll to end the evening. Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives for the first time, according to a YouGov poll for The Times.

Will Jennings, Sky polling analyst, says the poll "represents a moment of huge danger to the Conservatives".

We are are now pausing coverage for the evening. Join us on the campaign trail again in the morning. Goodnight!

Nigel Farage couldn't have hoped for better news as he strode on to the stage to debate on TV against Penny Mordaunt, Angela Rayner and rivals from the smaller opposition parties.

The dramatic news that his Reform UK party has overtaken the Conservatives in the latest YouGov poll, on 19% to the Tories' 18%, meant he had his trademark letter box grin on his face for virtually the whole debate.

He began by declaring in his opening remarks: "We are now the opposition to Labour!" And he ended by boasting: "I have the courage to take on the mob. Please join the revolt."

Throughout the debate, Mr Farage had a jaunty swagger about him. He laughed and scoffed at the anti-Brexit SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, who was standing next to him, and appeared to relish being in a minority of one against the other smaller parties on Brexit and immigration.

The other story of this debate was round two of the bruising battle between Penny Mordaunt and Angela Rayner over Labour's tax plans, while Ms Mordaunt conspicuously left Mr Farage alone and even engaged in some political flirting with him. Why could that possibly have been?

The Commons leader was relentless in her tax onslaught on Labour, from start to finish. But Labour's deputy leader stood her ground and resolutely stuck to the Starmer-Reeves script, even when Ms Mordaunt issued a direct challenge on whether Labour would raise capital gains tax.

It was not in the Labour manifesto, Ms Rayner insisted, repeating Sir Keir's mantra from earlier in the day. That wasn't not a no, then, Ms Mordaunt replied. Once again, as in last week's first TV clash between the pair, in her tax attack on Labour she was like a stuck record – but it may stick.

But while Ms Mordaunt tore into Ms Rayner relentlessly, she uttered not a word of criticism of Mr Farage. It looked like an indication that the Tories are terrified of him and that the party leadership may eventually buckle and do a deal with him before 4 July.

When it was her turn to ask an opponent a question, after Ms Mordaunt had challenged her on capital gains tax, Labour's deputy leader tackled her: "Would you welcome Nigel Farage into the Conservative Party?"

It was a firecracker of a question and one which the Tory cabinet minister answered so deftly and equivocally that she appeared to be engaging in cosying up to the Reform UK leader – politically speaking, of course! - rather than giving him the cold shoulder.

She told the audience that like Mr Farage she was a Brexiteer and she believed that if you couldn't reform European institutions you should be prepared to leave them. Oh!

That, of course, was a reference to quitting the European Convention of Human Rights, which Tory right-wingers are demanding, and a clear courting of support from Tory MPs in a future leadership bid. Shameless, her Tory critics will complain.

But then she declared: "Nigel is a Labour enabler." Yes, that's the official Tory line, but it wasn't exactly a savage put-down. Note, too, that she called him "Nigel" and not Mr Farage.

Never has a rebuff been delivered with such good grace. She's on leadership manoeuvres, make no mistake. Just like last week, when she said Rishi Sunak was "completely wrong" to leave the D-Day ceremony in Normandy early.

In a peroration towards the end, Mr Farage dismissed Labour and the Conservatives as "mushy SDP parties in the middle", condemned the House of Lords as "an abomination" and a "complete disgrace" because it's full of party donors and backed electoral reform.

It was his night, thanks to the opinion poll. The battle for Number 10 may be a fight between the Conservatives and Labour. But the Tories' war with Reform UK is a fight to the death over the future of the centre-right in British politics.

And, if Mr Farage is correct, it's a battle to become the official opposition to a Labour government after the election on 4 July.